US is poised to beat China’s V-shaped recovery: JPMorgan

The U.S. recovery is accelerating, putting it on course to outperform China’s V-shaped rebound, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists.

Indications of resilience in global industry, a surge in American retail spending, along with fiscal stimulus around the world, especially from the Biden administration, point to higher growth in the U.S., according to projections from JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman.

“We now expect the U.S. to outpace China, moving on a path that raises GDP well above its pre-crisis trajectory,” the economists wrote in a note. “We expect a regional gap between the U.S. and China and the performance of the rest of EM to remain large for some time to come.”

The alignment of U.S. fiscal stimulus and rebound from Covid-19 in Europe will help bring a 7.6% surge in world GDP around mid-year, they said. While the U.S. picture looks particularly promising, recent high-frequency data in China indicates less slowing there than had been feared, they added.