As Syrian Rebels Topple Assad Regime, How It May Impact Russia-Ukraine War

The five decades of Baath rule in Syria ended on Sunday as Islamist-led rebels declared that they had taken Damascus, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing. The lightning offensive left global stakeholders to reckon with the geopolitical impact of Syria’s fall on ongoing conflicts including the Russia-Ukraine war.

After President Assad’s alleged departure, Ukraine said the collapse of Russia’s ally Syria in the face of an assault from rebel groups shows Moscow cannot fight on two fronts. “We can see that Russia cannot fight on two fronts — this is clear from the events in Syria,” Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi told reporters while reiterating denials that Kyiv was involved in the fighting there.

Tykhyi was responding to a question about accusations from Iran, another ally of Assad, that Ukraine was supporting what Tehran called terrorist groups. “Ukraine categorically and decisively rejects any accusations … about our supposed involvement in the deteriorating security situation in Syria,” the spokesperson said.

“Russia’s significant losses in Ukraine have led Moscow to withdraw the majority of its troops and equipment from Syria, leaving its ally … without the necessary support,” Tykhyi said.

Fall Of Syria

At the peak of the conflict in Syria nearly a decade ago, Aleppo was at the frontlines of the war between government-controlled and rebel forces. However, with the help of Russian airpower and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah, President Bashar al-Assad was able to regain control over the entire Aleppo by the end of 2016. Since then, conflict in Syria has been majorly static with the rebels largely confined to the Idlib governate, adjacent to the Aleppo governate.

However, after years locked behind frozen frontlines, Syrian rebels have burst forth to mount the swiftest battlefield advance by either side since a rebellion against President Assad descended into civil war 13 years ago.

Mr Assad, who had crushed all forms of dissent, flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination earlier on Sunday, two senior army officers told Reuters, as rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.

“After 50 years of oppression under Baath rule, and 13 years of crimes and tyranny and (forced) displacement… we announce today the end of this dark period and the start of a new era for Syria,” the rebel factions said on Telegram.

But the Syrian army later said it was continuing operations against “terrorist groups” in the key cities of Hama and Homs and in Deraa countryside.

The pace of events in Syria has stunned Arab capitals and raised fears of a new wave of regional instability. Clearly, the armed opposition forces took advantage of the change in the power balance caused by nearby wars– in Ukraine and in Lebanon and the Middle East.

Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon has done significant damage to Mr Asaad’s ally Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, especially Hezbollah. At the same time, Russia, another stakeholder in Syria, is distracted by its fight in Ukraine making it harder to defend the Assad regime. 

Russia’s Stake In Syria

The lightning advance of rebels in Syria is threatening one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proudest achievements, his 2015 military intervention to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The end of Mr Asaad’s control in Syria risks not just Russia’s prestige, but its coveted military foothold in the eastern Mediterranean region– the naval base of Tartus and, further north, the Hmeimim Air Base, both with 49-year-leases received after Russia’s regime-saving intervention, according to a report by The Washington Post. 

In addition to using these bases to protect Mr Assad’s fragile regime, Moscow has used them to challenge American supremacy by projecting its military power in the eastern Mediterranean and claiming the role of a world power with vital regional interests. 

Russia, however, currently has its hands full with its war on Ukraine. As per an estimate by Britain’s Ministry of Defense, November was the costliest month of the war so far for Moscow’s forces, with an average of more than 1,500 killed or wounded a day. Russia has been facing a Ukrainian incursion on its own soil since August that it is struggling to expel, now with the help of North Korean soldiers.

Now, amid the reports of the fall of Syria, Russia is at risk of losing control over the Hmeimim and Tartus bases. 

How Could Fall Of Syria Impact Russia’s War In Ukraine?

According to a report by The Kyiv Independent, Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute said even during the war on Ukraine, Moscow never scaled its military presence back down. However, the quality of Russia’s officer corps in Syria had declined. 

“Russia retains exactly the same troop levels. They’ve conducted the same number of air sorties over Syria with the same geographical breadth that they did prior to the war in Ukraine,” he said, speaking on the Lawfare podcast.

What has changed, however, is that Russia can no longer count on the Wagner Group, which has played a significant role in safeguarding the Kremlin’s interests in Syria in the past. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia cannot send serious reinforcements to its military contingent in the Middle Eastern country either, according to a report by The Interpreter. 

Following its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has lost several allies from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). The end of Mr Asaad’s regime could mean Russia loses Syria as well, forcing the Kremlin to eventually shut down its Khmeimim Air Base in the Latakia area, and the naval facility in Tartus.

In the last two years of war, Moscow has redeployed weaponry from Syria to Ukraine, including Pantsir missile systems. Exposing its military and political weakness in Syria could undermine Russia’s leverage in any potential negotiations surrounding Ukraine.

The fall of Aleppo has exposed the Kremlin to the risk of military overreach and has put its alliance with Iran under stress because of its competing military objectives in the country, according to a report by Euro News. 

Russia is thus keen on encouraging dialogue between Ankara and Damascus and has deployed diplomatic efforts to open trilateral negotiations.