Fed’s Powell: Rates would move only after “all but full recovery”
Powell reiterated the Fed’s plan to reduce its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases after the U.S. makes “substantial further progress toward our goals” of maximum employment and inflation anchored securely at the Fed’s 2% target.
But in an interview on National Public Radio’s Morning Edition he put a rate hike further down the road. His use of the term “longer run” appeared to put a rate hike outside the roughly three-year window, through 2023, used in Fed officials’ most recent individual economic projections.
In the map of Fed officials’ interest rate forecasts, known as the “dot plot”, 11 of 18 Fed officials indicated that they did not think an increase would be appropriate before 2024.
In Powell’s prior public statements he has committed to seeing the recovery through to the end with continued central bank support, and the Fed’s policy statement embodies an explicit three part test around jobs and inflation it must satisfy before raising rates from the near-zero level set last year to fight a swift and deep recession.
His comments on Thursday put that in more colloquial terms with a pledge that rates would not rise until the pandemic’s damage is undone.
“In the longer run we have set out a test that will enable us to raise interest rates. So we will very, very gradually over time and with great transparency, when the economy has all but fully recovered, we will be pulling back the support that we provided during emergency times,” Powell said.
The central bank recently boosted its forecast for the year following the rollout of vaccines and the approval of extensive federal government support for families, businesses and local government.
“That’s going to enable us to open the economy sooner than expected,” Powell said.
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