Nifty Analysis: Tech View: Nifty shows market may be readying for make-or-break move
Nifty gained 45.70 points, or 0.31 per cent, to 14,683. During the session, the index moved in a range of 205 points, suggesting volatility in the market.
“Nifty’s short-term trend remains rangebound. The market is witnessing an alternating ups and downs movement over the past four sessions. The current setup shows one may expect Nifty to retest the crucial overhead resistance around 14,880 level in the short term, before seeing another round of weakness from the highs,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
He said a sustainable move above 14,900 level can open sharp upside for the market and the immediate support is placed at 14,600 level.
Despite volatile moves, Indian VIX, which is a measure of fear and nervousness in the market, eased merely 2 per cent to 20.84 level. But, analysts advised not to read too much into it and expect it to go up.
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Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist at Chartviewindia.in, said the Nifty moves suggested consolidation, as price movement remained listless for the major part of last two hours, as trading range was confined to almost 30 points.
“The market may be heading for a make-or-break kind of day next session, which can be prompted by RBI’s monetary policy outcome. However, the bulls need a close above 14,850 level to get their mojo back in the near term, whereas a close below 14,600 level shall set the tone for a sharp decline with initial targets placed around 14,263 level,” he said.
RBI’s monetary policy committee will announce the policy decision on Wednesday. Analysts said the panel is most likely to maintain status quo, but any change from that may trigger a surprise move in the market.
“Considering the monetary policy outcome and the listless market behaviour with a negative bias, traders are advised to avoid long positions unless Nifty closes above 14,850 level, while aggressive traders with high risk appetite can initiate intraday shorts below 14,573 level for a target of 14,420 by placing a stop loss above the intraday high,” Mohammad said.
Bank Nifty will also be in focus on Wednesday due to the RBI policy. Shrikant Chouhan, EVP for Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities, said the 32,250-32,700 should be the trading range for Bank Nifty.
“Expect trending activity above and below the given levels. Be stock specific in this market,” he said.
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